The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD), the Chinese retail giant that has overtaken local competitors like Alibaba and JD.com and expanded internationally with Temu, which has become the most-downloaded e-commerce app in the world. They discuss how to think about the lack of disclosures and what the margin decline and growth deceleration mean for the business going forward. But also whether this presents an exceptional buying opportunity at a single-digit earnings multiple and about 60% of the company’s market capitalization in cash.

Daniel and Shawn also discuss how the Chinese e-commerce market compares to international equivalents and what those differences mean for the profitability of the e-commerce model in general. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether PDD deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:10:55) How PDD became one of China’s leading marketplaces

(00:19:21) What makes PDD’s business model stand out

(00:23:06) How PDD compares to Chinese competition

(00:31:10) What makes China’s e-commerce market different

(00:32:26) What happened to margins and growth

(00:47:51) How Temu revolutionized international e-commerce

(01:15:22) Valuation discussion of PDD

(01:20:52) Whether PDD is valued attractively

(01:23:21) Whether Shawn and Daniel add PDD to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Value Investors Club ⁠Pitch on PDD⁠.

Hayden Capital Investment ⁠Memo on PDD⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns ⁠Uber⁠, ⁠Nike⁠, ⁠Reddit⁠, ⁠Nintendo⁠, ⁠Airbnb⁠, ⁠AutoZone⁠, ⁠Alphabet⁠, ⁠Ulta⁠, ⁠John Deere⁠, ⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠.

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Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley analyze SpaceX's blockbuster 2026 IPO, dissecting the company's three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. They’ll also look at its history, moats, capital allocation, debt, and incentive structure. They’ll stress-test SpaceX's aggressive $28.5 trillion total addressable market claim and walk through the key risks facing the business, from key-man dependence to regulatory exposure. 



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:06:28) How Elon Musk's early rocket failures almost sank SpaceX
(00:08:11) How Space, Connectivity, and AI segments actually work
(00:10:38) Why reusable rockets are reshaping launch economics
(00:12:00) Whether the AI segment is worrisome
(00:32:54) What's really driving Connectivity's improving margins
(00:34:19) How to think about SpaceX's R&D and capital spending
(00:42:00) Why SpaceX's debt picture is more nuanced than it looks
(00:47:41) How Musk's pay package ties to Mars and market cap benchmarks
(00:51:33) What risks could derail the SpaceX growth story
(00:59:27) Why its claimed market opportunity may be overstated
(01:05:28) Whether SpaceX's valuation can be justified by the numbers
(01:09:08) Intrinsic Value of SpaceX
(01:10:59) Whether Kyle and Shawn will add SpaceX to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Read Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson here.

Read Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance here.

Check out the SpaceX prospectus here.

Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), the Kazakhstani super-app that combines payments, e-commerce, and fintech into a single platform that most of the country uses every day. They unpack how the business actually makes its money across its three segments, why its dominance at home has been so hard for competitors to challenge, and how a company this profitable ends up trading at only around seven times earnings.

Daniel and Shawn discuss the company's founders and incentive structure, its expansion into Turkey through Hepsiburada, the role of its high dividend in the investment case, and the risks that come with it – from the oil-linked currency to the governance questions raised in the Culper short report. They also walk through how Daniel values the business and whether Kaspi.kz deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:36) How Kaspi became Kazakhstan's No.1 superapp

(00:15:45) What business units Kaspi operates

(00:33:49) What role the fintech business plays

(00:36:07) How the marketplace differs from Mercado Libre and Shopee

(00:43:34) What the competitive environment in Kazakhstan looks like

(00:51:11) What the Turkey expansion means for the business

(01:18:26) Valuation discussion of Kaspi

(01:21:59) Whether Kaspi is valued attractively

(01:25:24) Whether Shawn and Daniel add KSPI to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Kaspi CEO ⁠Presentation⁠.

Interview with the CEO, ⁠Mikhail Mikheil⁠.

Chris Paryse ⁠Pitch on Kaspi⁠.

Business Breakdowns ⁠Episode on Kaspi⁠.

Response to Culper’s ⁠Short Report⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns:⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Amazon⁠⁠⁠, ⁠Sea Limited⁠, ⁠Mercado Libre⁠, ⁠Shopify⁠.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke explore Restoration Hardware (ticker: RH).

In this episode, you'll learn how RH was able to reinvent itself as a high-end furniture retailer, using opulent galleries, high-end dining, private yachts, and a membership model based on Amazon Prime and Costco.

RH is an incredibly bold and unique business, not afraid to use unconventional viral marketing efforts to drive customers into stores, as they aim to set styles for the ultra-rich. Shawn and Daniel dig into the business, risks for shareholders, and estimate RH’s intrinsic value, plus so much more!

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:27) How RH has built an American luxury brand, defining home-design tastes
(00:05:51) Why yachts and private jets are actually core to RH’s strategy to sell furniture to the ultra-rich
(00:14:36) About the eccentric and fascinating world of Gary Friedman and his tastes that define RH
(00:26:18) Why RH pivoted to a membership-based model for discounting in 2016
(00:41:30) What RH is planning on doing in response to its debt maturity wall looming in 2028
(00:50:17) How RH is using sale-leasebacks and monetizing its real estate to improve capital efficiency
(00:53:55) How to think about the intrinsic value of RH
(00:58:21) Whether Shawn and Daniel add RH to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Check out RH’s ⁠investor relations page.⁠

Listen to Business Breakdowns’ ⁠podcast⁠ on RH.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Auto1 Group (ETR: AG1), the Berlin-based used-car platform. What trips most investors up about Auto1 is that it's two different businesses in one – a capital-light merchant marketplace on one side, a capital-heavy consumer retail bet on the other – and the asset-heavy model that everyone points to as the risk is arguably the same thing that kept Auto1 alive while better-funded competitors went bankrupt.

The market tends to fixate on the inventory sitting on Auto1's books and misses that the two halves of the business earn their returns in entirely different ways. Daniel and Shawn walk through how the thin margins on each car turn into something far more attractive once you account for how fast Auto1 cycles its inventory, and why none of it works without the funding structure underneath: a non-recourse ABS architecture that lets Auto1 carry enormous inventory without raising equity to match. That's the piece capital-light rivals skipped, and a large part of why they didn't survive.

Daniel and Shawn examine whether Auto1's instant-guaranteed-pricing model is a genuine consumer moat or a balance-sheet liability in disguise, what the economics actually look like in 2026 once you separate the merchant flywheel from the retail build-out, and the more uncomfortable side of the bull case – that net income can read positive while cumulative free cash flow stays deeply negative when new debt is funding operations. They also assess whether Auto1 Group deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:31) Why the traditional used-car market doesn’t work well

(00:07:42) About the size of the used-car market

(00:10:32) How Auto1’s business model works

(00:13:58) Who Auto1’s founders are

(00:19:43) How Auto1 buys and sells cars

(00:32:20) How the unit economics work

(00:54:25) Valuation discussion of AG1

(00:58:08) Whether Auto1 is valued attractively

(01:00:14) Whether Shawn and Daniel add AG1 to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Value Investors Club ⁠Pitch on Auto1⁠.

Business Breakdowns ⁠Episode on Auto1⁠.

Auto1 ⁠Investor Relations⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠Copart⁠, ⁠Ferrari⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠Uber⁠⁠, ⁠⁠Grab⁠, ⁠Lyft⁠, ⁠Exor NV⁠, ⁠Mercedes-Benz⁠.

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